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Publicaciones - 02_A_Artículos_Análisis de riesgos y gestión integral de la seguridad

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A combined risk analysis approach for complex dam–levee systems
Con fecha 18 de abril de 2017 se ha publicado el artículo "A combined risk analysis approach for complex dam–levee systems", cuyos autores son Jesica Tamara Castillo-Rodríguez (UPV/iPresas), Jason T. Needham (USACE), Adrián Morales-Torres (iPresas) e Ignacio Escuder-Bueno (UPV/iPresas).

Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
DOI: 10.1080/15732479.2017.1314514

Resumen:
"In many areas of the world, dams and levees are built to reduce the likelihood of flooding. However, if they fail, the result can be catastrophic flooding beyond what would happen if they did not exist. Therefore, understanding the risk reduced by the dam or levee, as well as any risk imposed by these flood defences is of high importance when determining the appropriate risk reduction investment strategy. This paper describes an approach for quantifying and analysing risk for complex dam–levee systems, and its application to a real case study. The basis behind such approach rely on the potential of event tree modelling to analyse risk from multiple combinations of ‘load-system response-consequence’ events, tested by the authors for a real case study. The combined approach shows how the contribution to system risk of each sub-system can be assessed. It also describes how decisions on risk mitigation measures, at the individual asset scale, can and should be informed in terms of how they impact the overall system risk"

Keywords:
Dams, levees, safety, system risk, risk analysis, flood risk management

Referencia:
Jesica Tamara Castillo-Rodríguez, Jason T. Needham, Adrián Morales-Torres & Ignacio Escuder-Bueno (2017): A combined risk analysis approach for complex dam–levee systems, Structure and Infrastructure Engineering.
DOI: 10.1080/15732479.2017.1314514

Enlace a la revista
 
A new risk reduction indicator for dam safety management combining efficiency and equity principles
El artículo con título "A new risk reduction indicator for dam safety management combining efficiency and equity principles" ha sido publicado en la revista "Structure and Infrastructure Engineering" con fecha 20 de octubre de 2016.

Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
DOI: 10.1080/15732479.2016.1245762

Los autores de este artículo son Armando Serrano-Lombillo, Adrián Morales-Torres, Ignacio Escuder-Bueno y Luis Altarejos-García.

Resumen:
"Large dams are critical infrastructures whose failure could produce high economic and social consequences. Risk analysis has been shown to be a suitable methodology to assess these risks and to inform dam safety management. In this sense, risk reduction indicators are a useful tool to manage risk results, yielding potential prioritisation sequences of investments in dams’ portfolios. Risk management is usually informed by two basic principles: efficiency and equity. These two principles many times conflict, requiring a trade-off between optimising the expenditures and providing a high level of protection to all individuals. In this paper, the risk reduction indicator Equity Weighted Adjusted Cost per Statistical Life Saved (EWACSLS) is presented. This indicator allows obtaining prioritisation sequences of investments while maintaining an equilibrium between equity and efficiency principles. In order to demonstrate its usefulness, it has been applied in a real-world case study, a portfolio of 27 dams where 93 structural and non-structural investments are prioritised. The EWACSLS indicator is analysed in detail and its results are compared with other existing risk reduction indicators, showing its flexibility and how it can be a very well balanced indicator for the purpose of prioritisation of risk reduction measures."

Referencia:
Armando Serrano-Lombillo, Adrián Morales-Torres, Ignacio Escuder-Bueno & Luis Altarejos-García (2016):
A new risk reduction indicator for dam safety management
combining efficiency and equity principles, Structure and Infrastructure Engineering,
DOI: 10.1080/15732479.2016.1245762

Enlace a la revista
 
Informe resumen Theme B 2015 ICOLD Benchmark Workshop
El informe resumen de las soluciones planteadas al Tema B, formulado por Ignacio Escuder y Adrián Morales, puede descargarse en este enlace.
Theme B - Informe
 
Overcoming failure in infrastructure risk governance implementation: large dams journey
El artículo con título "Overcoming failure in infrastructure risk governance implementation: large dams journey" ha sido publicado en la revista "Journal of Risk Research" con fecha 9 de agosto de 2016.

Los autores de este artículo son Ignacio Escuder Bueno (iPresas) y Eric Halpin (U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers).

Referencia:
Journal of Risk Research (2016): Overcoming failure in infrastructure risk governance implementation: large dams journey, Journal of Risk Research
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2016.1215345


Enlace a la revista
El artículo puede descargarse desde este enlace
 
Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain
El artículo con título "Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain" ha sido publicado en la revista "Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences" con fecha 29 de julio de 2016.

Los autores de este artículo son Jessica Castillo Rodríguez (iPresas), Ignacio Escuder Bueno (iPresas), Sara Perales Momparler (Green Blue Management) y Juan Ramón Porta Sancho (Ayuntamiento de Oliva).

Referencia:
Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T., Escuder-Bueno, I., Perales-Momparler, S., and Porta-Sancho, J. R.: Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1699-1718, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1699-2016, 2016


Enlace a la revista
El artículo puede descargarse desde este enlace
 
Building fragility curves of sliding failure of concrete gravity dams integrating natural and epistemic uncertainties
En julio de 2016 se ha publicado el artículo "Building fragility curves of sliding failure of concrete gravity dams integrating natural and epistemic uncertainties", cuyos autores son Adrián Morales-Torres, Ignacio Escuder-Bueno, Luis Altarejos-García y Armando Serrano-Lombillo

El artículo se ha publicado en el número 125 de la revista Engineering Structures.

Referencia:
Adrián Morales-Torres, Ignacio Escuder-Bueno, Luis Altarejos-García, Armando Serrano-Lombillo, Building fragility curves of sliding failure of concrete gravity dams integrating natural and epistemic uncertainties, Engineering Structures, Volume 125, 15 October 2016, Pages 227-235, ISSN 0141-0296, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2016.07.006.



Enlace al artículo en la revista Engineering Structures
 
The suitability of risk reduction indicators to inform dam safety management
Con fecha 2 de febrero de 2016 se ha publicado el artículo "The suitability of risk reduction indicators to inform dam safety management", cuyos autores son Adrián Morales-Torres, Armando Serrano-Lombillo, Ignacio Escuder-Bueno y Luis Altarejos-García

Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
DOI: 10.1080/15732479.2015.1136830

Referencia:
Adrián Morales-Torres, Armando Serrano-Lombillo, Ignacio Escuder-Bueno
& Luis Altarejos-García (2016): The suitability of risk reduction indicators to inform dam safety
management, Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, DOI: 10.1080/15732479.2015.1136830

Resumen:
"Risk analysis can provide very suitable and useful information to manage the safety of critical civil infrastructures. Indeed, results of quantitative risk models can be used to inform prioritisation of safety investments on infrastructures’ assets and portfolios. In order to inform this prioritisation, a series of risk reduction indicators can be used. This paper reviews existing indicators for dam safety, tracks how equity and efficiency principles are captured, propose additional indicators and provides insights into how tolerability guidelines and benefit–cost analysis can also play a role in decision-making. All reviewed, analysed and/or combined indicators are later applied in a case study, a portfolio of 27 dams where 93 structural and non-structural investments are prioritised. The case study shows that prioritisation sequences based on risk model results provide suitable and useful information, acknowledging that other concerns may be conditioning decision-making processes. With the results of the case study, a full comparison between all studied risk reduction indicators is made, and three indexes are calculated for all of them to measure how close they are to a theoretical best."

Keywords:
Dam safety, decision-making, risk management, risk & probability analysis, quantitative analysis, risk reduction indicators, risk reduction principles, equity & efficiency.

Enlace a la revista
 
Advances on the Failure Analysis of the Dam—Foundation Interface of Concrete Dams
Con fecha 2 de diciembre de 2015 se ha publicado el artículo "Advances on the Failure Analysis of the Dam—Foundation Interface of Concrete Dams", cuyos autores son Luis Altarejos-García, Ignacio Escuder-Bueno y Adrián Morales-Torres.

El artículo forma parte del Special Issue "Failure Analysis".

Referencia:
"Advances on the Failure Analysis of the Dam—Foundation Interface of Concrete Dams"; Altarejos-García, Luis; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio, and Morales-Torres, Adrián; Materials 2015, 8, 8255–8278; doi:10.3390/ma8125442

Resumen:
"Failure analysis of the dam-foundation interface in concrete dams is characterized by complexity, uncertainties on models and parameters, and a strong non-linear softening behavior. In practice, these uncertainties are dealt with a well-structured mixture of experience, best practices and prudent, conservative design approaches based on the safety factor concept. Yet, a sound, deep knowledge of some aspects of this failure mode remain unveiled, as they have been offset in practical applications by the use of this conservative approach. In this paper we show a strategy to analyse this failure mode under a reliability-based approach. The proposed methodology of analysis integrates epistemic uncertainty on spatial variability of strength parameters and data from dam monitoring. The purpose is to produce meaningful and useful information regarding the probability of occurrence of this failure mode that can be incorporated in risk-informed dam safety reviews. In addition, relationships between probability of failure and factors of safety are obtained. This research is supported by a more than a decade of intensive professional practice on real world cases and its final purpose is to bring some clarity, guidance and to contribute to the improvement of current knowledge and best practices on such an important dam safety concern."

Keywords:
concrete gravity dams; sliding failure mode; reliability; uncertainty; spatial variability

Enlace a la revista
 
SMART GOVERNANCE OF INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAMS: FACING THE NEXT GENERATION OF CHALLENGES AND SUCCEEDING
Eric HALPIN e Ignacio ESCUDER-BUENO: XXV ICOLD Congress, Stavanger, Noruega (Junio 2015)
Enlace al artículo
Artículo Q96
 
SAFETY INVESTMENTS IN HORCAJO DAM (SPAIN): A PROCESS INFORMED BY THE APPLICATION OF SPANCOLD GUIDELINES ON RISK ANALYSIS
Manuel SETRAKIAN, Ignacio ESCUDER-BUENO, Adrián MORALES-TORRES y Dolores SIMARRO: XXV ICOLD Congress, Stavanger, Noruega (Junio, 2015).
Enlace al artículo
Artículo Q99
 
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Noticias

Adrián Morales, Director Técnico de iPresas, Premio Ingeniero Joven 2017 - 02/06/2017
El acto de entrega tuvo lugar el 1 de junio, en la sede del Colegio de Ingenieros de Caminos, Canales y Puertos en Valencia.

iPresas participa en la Quinta Edición de la Plataforma Global para la Reducción del Riesgo de Desastres - 28/05/2017
El evento, organizado por UNISDR, tuvo lugar del 22 al 26 de mayo de 2017.

iPresas Flood - Versión simplificada del software iPresas para el análisis del riesgo de inundación - 05/01/2017
Ya está disponible esta nueva versión simplificada diseñada para realizar cálculos de riesgo de inundación (económico y social)

iPresas participa en un proyecto piloto en India - 15/12/2016
El proyecto DAMSAFE, coordinado por Deltares, está cofinanciado por RVO (Netherlands Enterprise Agency)

Ignacio Escuder imparte un curso de análisis de riesgos en Neuquén (Argentina) - 10/10/2016
El curso, organizado por el Comité Argentino de Grandes Presas, se enmarca dentro de un programa de capacitación en la materia

Ignacio Escuder y Adrián Morales participan como expertos para el Banco Mundial - 01/07/2016
Dentro del Programa "Agua para Uruguay"

iPresas lleva a cabo un proyecto vinculado a las obras de control de inundaciones en Tegucigalpa - 01/06/2016
El proyecto, financiado por el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) tiene como objetivo proporcionar el control de calidad de las obras a desarrollar desde la perspectiva del análisis de riesgo